The year SpaceX caught up — and what happened next

At the end of 2020, the two counts met: 105 orbital launch attempts each since the beginning of 2010. United Launch Alliance had spent most of that decade in front. SpaceX had just caught it.

Five years later, the same starting line tells a strikingly different story. SpaceX had accumulated 600 attempts; ULA had 132. The gap was more than four to one.

A long catch-up, then a breakaway

In 2010, ULA made eight attempts in the catalogue and SpaceX made two. ULA’s lead widened over the following years. By the end of 2016, the running totals stood at 78 and 28. The comparison starts in 2010 so both companies are measured over the same complete years; it does not count ULA’s earlier launches or claim to be a lifetime tally.

The balance of annual activity changed first. SpaceX made 18 attempts in 2017 to ULA’s eight, but catching a decade’s head start took longer. The totals met at 105 apiece at the end of 2020. In 2021, SpaceX moved ahead: 136 to 110.

Why one launch is not like another

By 2025, the annual counts were 170 for SpaceX and six for ULA. A launch is a launch in this count, but missions carry different payloads and serve different purposes. The number of attempts is neither a measure of cargo mass nor a score for mission success. The catalogue includes failed attempts and some marginally orbital Starship test flights.

SpaceX’s own Starlink network is part of the picture: 122 of the 170 SpaceX attempts in the catalogue for 2025 have Starlink in their mission or flight field. Those are launches, not satellites. The number describes what the catalogue labels and is not a complete account of every payload on every shared flight.

ULA remains a significant launch provider. In 2020 the US Space Force awarded both companies national security launch contracts; the two compete in some markets even though their launch mixes and customers differ. Counting launches shows a change in cadence, not the value of those contracts or the importance of each mission.

The chart ends in 2025, the latest complete calendar year in this comparison. Both counts started at the same date. The distance between them at the finish shows just how quickly the pace of American spaceflight can change.